Climate variability on Fit for 55 European power systems
This study analyses the impact of year-on-year variability of weather and large-scale weather patterns on the 2030 European power system as envisioned in the MIX scenario of the Fit for
Interestingly, the relative share of anomalies in onshore and offshore wind power production for Europe is typically similar independent of the weather patterns, although the estimate of the European mean wind power production for 2050 is by about a factor of four larger offshore (155.8 MW) than onshore (37.1 MW).
The model yields a mean hourly production for Europe of 130 GW for PV power and 151 GW for wind power for the 2050 installed capacity, which gives a ratio of PV to PV plus wind power production of 46%. Our model captures regional differences in weather impacts accounting for the heterogeneous distribution of installed capacities.
North Atlantic-European weather regimes have significant influence on meteorological surface conditions relevant for the energy sector. On average, wind and solar power production is above normal in the NAO positive and Atlantic Ridge regimes, and below normal in the Scandinavian Blocking and NAO negative regimes.
The 2019 installed capacities aggregated over Europe are namely 120 GW of PV power and 167 GW of wind power 17.
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